CELLULAR IOT ROAMING DATA TRAFFIC FORECAST TO REACH 274 PETABYTES IN 2024: KALEIDO INTELLIGENCE
EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST VOLUME OF INBOUND ROAMING TRAFFIC FOLLOWED BY NORTH AMERICA AND EAST ASIA & PACIFIC. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN LOW VOLUME TRAFFIC DEVICES OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS HIGHLIGHTS KEY CHALLENGES FOR WHOLESALE PROVIDERS.
London, February 19th, 2020 –Data roaming traffic generated by IoT devices reached 111 Petabytes in 2019, according to a new research by roaming experts Kaleido Intelligence. This is forecast to reach 274 Petabytes in 2024, representing an average annual growth of 20% over the period.
Europe & Central Asia followed by North America and East Asia & Pacific will see the highest volume of inbound roaming traffic respectively, with Europe & Central Asia responsible for 40% of traffic volume in 2024.
70% of traffic will be attributable to IoT devices that consume over 100MB per month in volume in 2024, highlighting a major challenge in the current business model. In context, the research has found that devices consuming on average less than 10MB per month will make up over 65% of the IoT roaming device fleet in 2024. These devices average less than $1.55 in annual wholesale average revenue per connection (ARPC), which will force the industry to establish new business models and encourage VAS take-up.
Steffen Sorrell, Chief of Research at Kaleido Intelligence said: “As low-power IoT device increase in numbers the challenge will be on how to monetise low data traffic devices, where a per-unit pricing model simply doesn’t work in the long-term. VAS will be fundamental in addition to players’ ability to limit wholesale fees for IoT data traffic to achieve a sustainable business model.”
IoT MVNOs Set to Take the Stage, with MVNEs waiting in the Wings
Kaleido’s research found that, presently, there are close to 40 MVNOs globally serving IoT connectivity needs. These players, through broad roaming agreements, are often in a superior position to serve the global connectivity requirements of large enterprises and OEMs, the lack of which is in part responsible for slower-than-anticipated IoT growth thus far.
Kaleido predicts that IoT customers themselves will soon demand MVNO capabilities themselves, in order to offer improved and seamless customer experience across cross-border deployments. This will begin in the automotive sector, but increasingly branch out to other segments in the medium term, leading to the presence of many more IoT MVNOs in the market.
Naturally, this will serve to increase demand for MVNE capabilities, with existing MVNOs harnessing virtualised infrastructure and close MNO relationships to deliver on specialised customer requirements.
5G Network Slicing vs Private Networks – The Race is On
5G network slicing offers operators the opportunity to separate their networks into logical ‘slices’ according to customer demand or service requirements. It is viewed as a key tool for 5G ROI, applicable to roaming, ultra-low latency, high bandwidth and massive IoT applications. Nevertheless, the research found that the technical complexity and lack of industry clarity surrounding network slicing standards will damage the opportunity into the medium-term. It found that, while demand already exists, such as in the automotive and industrial IoT sector, the lack of supply has instead catalysed the growth of private network deployment.
Kaleido recommends that players must consider how to position themselves strategically in anticipation of private 5G growth in the medium term. The development of private LTE and, in the future, private 5G networks indicates a market-driven approach that harnesses alternative cellular approaches for specific industry verticals.
Kaleido believes that network slicing for M2M/IoT will not see significant growth until after 2024.
About Kaleido Intelligence
Kaleido Intelligence is a specialist consulting and market research firm with a proven track record delivering telecom research at the highest level. Kaleido Intelligence is the only research company addressing mobile roaming in its entirety, covering:
- Data Forecasts by Market
- Historical & Forecast Viewpoints
- Competitive Intelligence
- Strategic Insight
- Trend Analysis
Research is led by expert analysts, each with significant experience delivering roaming insights that matter.